Beat Kalshi
Weather Markets
While most traders check weather.com or look out their window, you're using the same 31-member ensemble model NOAA meteorologists use — plus real-time METAR observations — delivered in a detailed, graphical dashboard.
Most traders check weather.com
Our dashboard pulls real-time airport sensor data and 31-member GFS ensemble forecasts, computes the true probability of each outcome, and compares it against live Kalshi prices. When there's a gap big enough to beat the fee, it flags it.
Real-Time METAR + GFS Ensemble
Pulls live airport sensor data and 31-member GFS ensemble forecasts to compute the true probability of each temperature and rain outcome.
Automatic Edge Detection
Compares true probability against live Kalshi prices. When there’s a gap big enough to beat the fee, it flags it — green for YES, red for NO.
Updated Every 5 Minutes
Every market, every city, refreshed automatically. No spreadsheets, no manual lookups — just a live table of where the edge is right now.
Signals at a glance
Same-day markets after 2 PM are the high-confidence plays: if the airport thermometer already shows the daily high is locked in, the signal fires with near-certainty.
Longer-dated markets run on the ensemble model, flagging when 83% of independent forecast runs agree but Kalshi is still pricing it at 15%.
Two Ways to Find Edge
One for same-day certainty, one for multi-day probability. Both backed by professional-grade NOAA data that most traders never see.
METAR Lock
After 2 PM ET
The thermometer already shows the answer. Real-time METAR airport observations tell you the daily high before the market adjusts. Enter near-certainty contracts before the market reprices.
“When the airport sensor says 82°F at 2:47 PM and the market asks "Will the high exceed 80°F?" at $0.72 — that's free money.”
GFS Ensemble
Pre-Event Analysis
When 83% of model runs agree but Kalshi prices it at 15%, you have edge. The 31-member GFS ensemble gives you probability distributions that the market hasn't fully absorbed.
“27 of 31 ensemble members say Denver will exceed 85°F. Kalshi YES is at $0.18. That's a 56% edge.”
Everything Included. Nothing Extra.
A complete toolkit for finding and exploiting weather market edge.
Live, Locally Hosted Dashboard
A full graphical dashboard running on your machine. Every market, every city, updated every 5 minutes. No cloud, no subscriptions.
Self-Contained Python Script
One file. Zero paid APIs required. All data comes from free NOAA sources.
200+ Markets Scanned
Automatically scans every open Kalshi weather market. No manual searching or spreadsheets.
>10% Edge Detection
Flags contracts where the data shows significant mispricing. Green for YES, red for NO.
Clear YES / NO Signals
No ambiguity. Each flagged contract tells you exactly which side to take and why.
Setup & Strategy Guides
Full setup walkthrough plus strategy guide with real examples and edge calculations.
Run. Scan. Trade.
Three steps from download to your first edge trade. The script does the heavy lifting.
Install
Python 3.9+, pip install requirements. Five minutes.
Scan
Run the script. It checks every open Kalshi weather market.
Trade
Act on flagged signals with >10% edge. YES or NO, your call.
Ready to Trade
with an Edge?
Stop guessing. Let professional NOAA data do the analysis while you collect the edge. Everything you need in one download.
Requires Python 3.9+ · Works on macOS, Windows & Linux